US Draft Peace Plan for Ukraine

Anika Samant is a first-year Bsc Politics and International Relations student. She is passionate about diplomatic relations and global affairs, with a particular interest in the Russia-Ukraine conflict (anika.samant.25@ucl.ac.uk).

Details of the Plan

On the 20th of November, 2025, a 28-point peace plan for a deal between Russia and Ukraine was made public by Axios, an American digital news outlet [2]. Reportedly, negotiator 'Steve Witkoff’ for the Trump administration formulated this plan, including input from Secretary of State Marco Rubio as well as President Trump's son-in-law Jared Kushner [5]. Additionally, it can be noted that Witkoff consulted with Russian envoy Krill Dmitriev when doing so.

For Russia, this draft plan would secure Russian control over Crimea, Luhansk, and Donetsk, with explicit U.S. recognition. It would “freeze” the status of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia along existing lines of control. This formalizes many of Russia's wartime territorial gains and grants acceptance of its annexations, a goal Moscow has worked towards since 2014. Russia also benefits from the demilitarization of certain buffer zones, the withdrawal of Ukrainian forces from parts of Donetsk, and the promise that Ukraine would refrain from joining NATO, fulfilling a demand that Russia has been echoing for years in the lead up to this conflict. The plan also commits NATO to halt further expansion and bars troops from Ukrainian soil [5].

The economic benefits for Russia are such that sanctions would be withdrawn, fostering Russian reintegration into global politics, involving especially an invitation to rejoin the G8 summit. Furthermore, this plan allocates portions of frozen Russian assets to the reconstruction of Ukraine, but also links Russia and the United States together in sectors like A.I, energy, and mining. However, Russia must also pledge non-aggression and agree to legal commitments, including arms control and non-proliferation [5].

Ukraine would also have to make major concessions, ceding Crimea, Luhansk and Donetsk to Russia, while also having to withdraw from specified parts of Donetsk to establish a buffer zone. Moreover, Ukraine would be required to enshrine neutrality into its constitution, permanently forgoing membership of NATO. Ukraine would have to cap its armed forces at 600,000; however, it would receive US-backed security guarantees and eligibility for EU membership, as well as access to a 200 billion international reconstruction package funded by frozen Russian and European assets. On another note, the return of prisoners and humanitarian aid is mandated, but this plan also requires amnesty for all wartime actions, precluding future prosecutions for war crimes. It thus follows that Ukraine would need to implement reforms to protect minority rights and ban “Nazi ideology"[5].

Russia's Commentary on the Peace Plan

President Vladimir Putin has publicly acknowledged the existence of the 28-point peace plan , stating it to be a “foundation for a final peace settlement"[3]. He noted that the formal recognition of Crimea, Donetsk, and Luhansk as Russian territories and the halting of NATO enlargement [3] align closely with Russia's core demands. It was also emphasized that these elements justify Russia's actions and signal a diplomatic win compared to previous Western positions [4].

However, scepticism exists over the willingness of Ukraine and Europe to accept the proposed territorial concessions and terms on frozen assets [4]. Since multiple proposals are outdated, they are cause for concern for Ukraine and its European allies; specifically, concerns arise over the plan prioritising Russian requirements as opposed to those of Europe and Ukraine. Alternatively, Russia has criticised European counterproposals as unacceptable, described by Putin as “attempts to 'sabotage’ current peace efforts by offering counter proposals ‘utterly unacceptable to Russia”[3]. Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov has stated in interviews that Russia will not cede, “in any form”, its territorial needs, due to the historical significance of the annexed regions, as well as the referendums held [3]. On this note, Russia rejects the settlement of European troops in Ukraine, even extending to settlements required for security guarantees [3].

Despite these qualms, Russia is still willing to negotiate, mostly due to its strategic position on the battlefield. Commenting on the ‘liberation’ of Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, President Putin has stated that it is proceeding “steadily and in a coordinated manner", and that the strategic initiative remains firmly with the Russian Armed Forces” [3]. On the matter of Kyiv, Russian officials have framed any concessions from the capital as a diplomatic victory. Additionally, Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov commented that the US “promised” Ukrainian territory to Russia as part of a peace settlement [3]. However, Putin and other senior officials maintain that no substantive new discussions on the plan have taken place, due to the dependence of the final settlement on Ukraine, according to Russia's demands [4].

Ukraine's Commentary on the Peace Plan

For Ukraine, this peace plan signifies balancing its notable relationship with the United States against a presumed existential threat posed by Russian aggression [1]. Since the plan was developed primarily by the Trump administration and the Kremlin without direct Ukrainian input, this highlights the lack of Ukrainian agency discernible in negotiations directly concerning its sovereignty [1]. Despite this, President Zelenskyy has insisted that any peace plan must guarantee the lack of a repeated Russian invasion [1].

One of the most consistent objections from Ukraine concerns the plan's territorial concessions - Zelenskyy has frequently stated that Ukraine will never recognise these territories as part of Russia [1]. According to Oleksandr Merezhko, Head of the Ukrainian Foreign Affairs Parliamentary Committee, a significant drawback of the plan is its contradictions. He stated that the plan “starts by guaranteeing Ukraine’s sovereignty but then lists several points that would inhibit or violate that sovereignty" [1].

Another point of contention is the requirement for Ukraine to formally renounce its ambition to join NATO. President Zelenskyy has continually argued that NATO membership is imperative to guarantee security for Ukraine [1]. Ukrainian officials are also wary that the plan's promise of preferential EU market access and reforms as a path toward membership are insufficient substitutes for genuine security guarantees [1].

Analysts and lawmakers have noted that implementing constitutional amendments would further complicate the process and risk major domestic backlash [1]. Resultantly, Political Analyst Volodymur Fesenko warns that signing the plan would be “catastrophic” for Zelenskyy, but also acknowledges the immense pressure from Washington rendering outright rejection difficult [1].Finally, calling for Russia's frozen assets to be used in Ukraine's reconstruction is accepted with reservation from Kyiv and Moscow. Ukrainian officials are aware that resistance from the Kremlin could further complicate any settlement [1].

Conclusion

The leaked 28-point U.S. draft peace plan would formalise Russia’s wartime gains by recognising Crimea, Donetsk and Luhansk as Russian territory and freezing other front lines, while locking Ukraine into constitutional neutrality and preventing its membership to NATO. In return, Ukraine would receive the U.S.-backed guarantees, a reconstruction package, and an EU pathway, alongside prisoner returns. Russia has welcomed the plan as aligning with core demands, though it rejects European troop involvement and expects Kyiv to concede territory. Ukraine opposes the sovereignty costs, doubts the security guarantees, and warns the deal is politically indefensible.

Works Cited

[1] Koshiw, I. (2025). Proposed peace plan for Ukraine leaves country in delicate position. [online] Defense News. Available at: https://www.defensenews.com/global/europe/2025/11/21/proposed-peace-plan-for-ukraine-leaves-country-in-delicate-position/ [Accessed 22 Dec. 2025].

[2] Livingstone, K. (2025). How a US-led peace plan in Ukraine is reshaping global alliances. [online] Defense News. Available at: https://www.defensenews.com/global/europe/2025/12/18/how-a-us-led-peace-plan-in-ukraine-is-reshaping-global-alliances/ [Accessed 20 Dec. 2025].

[3] Mills , C. (2025). Response to the US–Russia 28-point peace plan for Ukraine . United Kingdom: House of Commons Library , pp.1–6.

[4] Rajoli Siddharth Jayaprakash (2025). Trump-Plan: A First draft to a lasting peace? [online] orfonline.org. Available at: https://www.orfonline.org/research/trump-plan-a-first-draft-to-a-lasting-peace [Accessed 21 Dec. 2025].

[5] Ravid, B. and Lawler, D. (2025). Trump’s full 28-point Ukraine-Russia peace plan. [online] Axios. Available at: https://www.axios.com/2025/11/20/trump-ukraine-peace-plan-28-points-russia.

[6] Sky News. (2025). Trump’s 28-point Ukraine peace plan in full. [online] Available at: https://news.sky.com/story/trumps-28-point-ukraine-peace-plan-in-full-including-land-kyiv-must-hand-to-russia-and-when-elections-must-be-held-13473491.