Soon to be G19?

Jonathan Dusse is a first year Politics and International Relations student. He interned at the German parliament where he strengthened his interest in political cooperation and governance. (Jonathan Dusse on LinkedIn)

Introduction

The G20 or group of 20 as it is formally known has come under recent turmoil with publicised outfalling and diplomatic jabs between South Africa and the United States, both member states, surrounding the summit in Johannesburg. This diplomatic conflict sheds light on the impact of US foreign policy and the future of the G20. To put the current conflict into context however one first has to delve into history to understand the group's roots.

Historical Background

Following decade-long talks between global economic powers to increase economic cooperation the G20 was formed in 1999 in the wake of the 1997-98 financial crisis in southeast Asia [1]. First a cooperative forum between finance ministers of its member countries, it was upleveled in importance during the 2008 financial crisis with the forum now held between heads of government. The G20 has also expanded beyond economic cooperation, now also being a platform of security and other policy issues [2]. The expanded political scope and its informal nature are key in analysing the current situation between the US and South Africa. Being a forum without legally binding agreements and rotating leadership it is mostly shaped by convention and political will rather than legal or institution pressure. This institutional structure, held together by unbinding norms and declarations, has been put under stress by rising geopolitical tensions caused by conflicts such as the Ukraine war and increasing economic competition between China and the US [3]. The evidence of these stresses has become especially clear looking at the current Feud between the USA and South Africa.

US-South Africa Feud

The diplomatic conflict gained steam earlier this year, when Cyril Ramaphosa, president of South Africa, visited Trump in the Oval Office in May 2025 [4]. The US President accused the South African political leadership of tolerating alleged discrimination and violence targeted against White South Africans. There were no accounts of Trump's claims being truthful, however the Trump administration has since doubled down on their claims. After decreasing the annual refugee intake from 125,000 to 7,500 the US government still instituted a resettlement program for white South Africans over alleged „state-sponsored discrimination“ [5] [6].

This diplomatic feud also impacted the G20 summit which was chaired by South Africa in 2025. Trump and his government did not attend the summit which was held in Johannesburg. The US chairing next year's summit has made matters even more explosive diplomatically. On one hand Trump has refused to give a formal invitation to South Africa to attend the 2026 summit in Miami. On the other hand Ramaphosa did not pass along the leadership ceremonially to the US ambassador. This happened because the South African president was unwilling to break tradition and hand it over to a junior diplomat of next year’s host country.

The Winner is Still Uncertain

Commentators see South Africa currently in the lead in this diplomatic kerfuffle as Ramaphosa managed to unite every party behind a joint declaration, with the exception of the US that is [7].

Who ultimately holds the upper hand in this tangled diplomatic ordeal is a matter of wider foreign policy. Trump has alienated some of the US’ closest allies with his antics who are now seeking cooperation in other places. The EU for example is seemingly moving nearer to a trade agreement with China, something fairly unlikely before Trump´s second term [8]. Still, the US holds huge economic and political bargaining power. The freezing of USAID previously this year has devastated some emerging economies. Now, Trump has said to freeze all subsidies and payments to South Africa, with the effects of this punitive measure still to be seen [9]. Therefore, it is still unclear who will emerge as the diplomatically victorious party and might be a question of which weighs heavier, Trump’s alienating antics or the US’ economic power.

This puts into question the consequences of this situation. There are multiple levels on which consequences can be assessed. First, the US South Africa dynamic, is Trump able to isolate Ramaphosa with the US 2026 G20 leadership or will he alienate potential allies with his antics? Second, the general G20 dynamic, is the forum able to persist in a global and diplomatic crisis or is it bound to falter due to its informal framework?

What the Future Holds in Store

Is the group fragile or resilient, will it soon be G19 or not, after all another economic forum with great overlap in membership and program with the G20 has seen membership loss after a diplomatic outfalling. Formerly known as G8, the group was reduced after Russia's ongoing conflict with Ukraine left the former politically alienated and barred from participating in what has now become to be known as G7. Therefore, with rising global conflicts it would not be unheard of if the G20 dwindled in membership as a comparable forum has already. However, the G20 seems more geopolitically balanced. While the G7 mostly contains global north economic powerhouses the G20 contains a considerable number of BRICS states, providing a geopolitical counterbalance [10]. This makes the unanimous ousting of a member highly unlikely, although the short-term exclusion of South Africa might seem like a step in this direction. It is still unclear however, in which capacity this exclusion will take place. As the hosting country does not have any jurisdiction to exclude members formally. An informal exclusion through Visa denial would be a possibility.

The remaining possibility would be the withdrawal of one of the conflict parties from G20. Trump has previously withdrawn from forums and agreements that he did not perceive as viable, the WHO and Paris agreement being two examples, and it is possible that he would do so again if he perceives the G20 as not useful for his goals anymore. This would be unheard of in history, as the G20 has never lost a member. After the addition of the African Union in 2023 it has even grown to 21. The Miami summit in 2026 could prove to be a guidepost for the forum's future membership. This summit will prove if Trump’s alienation tactics play out in his favour or if they backfire leaving the US more alienated on the diplomatic stage.

It seems highly unlikely however that the whole future of the G20 is in danger. Arguably, the G20 has persisted with more impactful crises such as the 2008 financial crisis or Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Furthermore, even the G7 has not ceased to exist after the exclusion of Russia.

The Miami summit will prove much more if Trump’s alienation tactics play out in his favour or if they backfire leaving the US more alienated on the diplomatic stage.

Works Cited

[1] Little, R. (2025). ‘The G20 Explained’, Harvard Kennedy School Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, 19 November. Available at: https://www.belfercenter.org/research-analysis/g20-explained

(Accessed: 27 December 2025).

[2] Jokela, J. (2011). ‘The History of the G-20.’ in Jokela, J. THE G-20: A PATHWAY TO EFFECTIVE MULTILATERALISM?. Paris: European Union Institute for Security Studies (EUISS), pp. 11–30.

[3] (2025). ‘What Does the G20 Do?’, Council on Foreign Relations, 18 November. Available at: https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/what-does-g20-do

(Accessed: 27 December 2025).

[4] Vandome, C. (2025). ‘Ramaphosa withstands Trump’s White House ambush with his ‘delegation of all the talents’, Chatham House, 6 June. Available at: https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cj69px875ewo (Accessed: 27 December 2025).

[5] United States of America. U.S. Embassy and Consulates in South Africa (2025). Refugee Admissions Program for South Africans. Available at: https://za.usembassy.gov/refugee-admissions-program-for-south-africans/ (Accessed: 27 December 2025).

[6] Muia, W. (2025). ‘South Africa defiant after US threatens ‘consequences’ over refugee centre raid’, BBC, 19 December. Available at: https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cj69px875ewo

 (Accessed: 27 December 2025).

[7] Sandner, P. (2025). ‘How Africa is asserting itself globally - despite Trump’, dw, 26 December. Available at: https://www.dw.com/en/how-africa-is-asserting-itself-globally-despite-trump/a-75116234

 (Accessed: 27 December 2025).

[8] (2025). ‘China talks up EU trade deal, years after investment pact was frozen’, Reuters, 6 November. Available at: https://www.reuters.com/world/china/china-says-it-is-willing-explore-trade-investment-agreements-with-eu-2025-11-06/

 (Accessed: 28 December 2025).

[9] Rukanga, B. (2025). ‘South Africa hits back after Trump says US won’t invite it for G20 next’, BBC, 27 November. Available at: https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cq8dq47j5y8o

 (Accessed: 28 December 2025).

[10] Alexander, N., Löschmann, H., Schuele, W. (2025). ‘The G7 and G20 in the Global Governance Landscape’, Heinrich Böll Stiftung, September. Available at: https://www.boell.de/en/g7-and-g20-global-governance-landscape

(Accessed: 27 December 2025).