China-Japan and the Taiwan Question: Escalating Tensions in East Asia

Maria Asad is a graduate of BS International Relations with research interests, focused on great power rivalry in the Asia-Pacific. Her undergraduate thesis investigated the China-US competition in the South China Sea and its implications on regional stability. She continues to examine evolving dynamics and strategic development in East Asia.

http://linkedin.com/in/mariaasad

Introduction

Relations between the People’s Republic of China and Japan entered a period of heightened strain in late November, when the Japanese administration executed a coordinated strategy that constitutes the most significant threat to regional stability in years. The recent tensions between two of Asia's biggest economies, originating after the Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s remarks in parliament, suggest that a Chinese military move against Taiwan could constitute a threat to Japan’s survival. In response, Beijing condemned these comments as a violation of the “One China Policy” and deemed it an interference in China’s internal affairs, warning that any suggestion of Japanese military intervention in the Taiwan Strait could have severe consequences. [1]

The Chinese side believes that the tone used by the Japanese Prime Minister is not merely political but under Japan’s controversial 2015 security legislation, it is a legal term that can be used to justify military intervention overseas. China also showed its concern over Japanese premier, normalising the possibility of Japan’s forces intervening in a Taiwan scenario, and by doing so the current Japanese government has seemingly crossed Beijing’s red line that had been respected by the previous Japanese Governments, although she later called her statement hypothetical but China’s position remains that the matters concerning Taiwan are strictly China’s internal affairs and that external involvement, either military or political, represents a direct challenge to its sovereignty and territorial integrity, on which it cannot compromise.

This verbal escalation was rapidly followed by a tangible military move, as Japan’s Defence Ministry announced plans to deploy offensive medium range surface to air missiles on Yonaguni Island. [2] This remote island is situated a mere 110 kilometres from Taiwan that place it squarely on the frontline of any potential conflict. Japanese officials have labelled this deployment as a defensive necessity, yet China frames it as the transformation of Yonaguni into a forward military outpost to monitor and contain activity in the Taiwan Strait, that posses a direct threat to China’s security.

Japan’s Strategic Shift and Beijing’s Response

Japan has undertaken a notable shift in defence strategy which is signaled by its approval of a record 58 Billion USD budget for fiscal 2026, aimed at modernising striking capabilities and unmanned systems. This budget marks a significant increase over previous years and is part of a broader plan to raise defence spending to 2% of the GDP. [3]

China interprets Japan’s defence modernisation as more than a domestic security measure. Enhanced capabilities, particularly those with regional reach, signal Japan’s integration into broader US-led Indo-Pacific security strategies. From China’s viewpoint, this militarisation intensifies the security dilemma and increases the potential for miscalculation, especially in areas like the East China Sea and Taiwan Strait.

Diplomatic and Economic Countermeasures

In response to Japanese statements and perceived alignment with US containment policies, Beijing has implemented targeted economic and diplomatic measures. These include the suspension of Japanese seafood imports which reflected a calculated economic response. China also issued travel advisories for Chinese citizens visiting Japan, which signalled concerns about regional instability.

The cultural and educational exchanges also reduced, which was aimed at communicating displeasure without escalating military tensions. [4] China has also lodged formal diplomatic protests against Japanese official’s interactions with Taiwan, to reaffirm its commitment to the “One China” policy and to warn that any external engagement in Taiwan related matters undermine regional stability.

Tokyo’s Balancing Act

Despite assertive defence policies and provocative military strategies, Japan has signalled a willingness to engage in dialogue with Beijing. In December, PM Takaichi emphasised on Japan's openness to diplomatic talks and further highlighted the importance of maintaining stable bilateral channels even amid disagreements. [5] This illustrates Tokyo’s balancing act where it is maintaining credibility with its domestic audience and allies while avoiding unrestrained escalation with China.

Beijing’s Strategic Framing

From China’s perspective, the current tensions are shaped by three interrelated factors. Firstly, Japan’s military modernisation which China views as a move away from Japan’s post war pacifism towards a more assertive regional security posture, that’s aligned with US interests.[6] Secondly, Japan’s statements about potential intervention in Taiwan which China sees as destabilising the regional peace. Lastly, the great power competition, meaning the containment strategies by Japan, US and allied actors.[7]

Furthermore, Beijing emphasizes on the importance of dialogue, restraint and respect for sovereignty to manage tensions and avoid miscalculations. Its approach combines measured military preparedness with diplomatic signalling, aiming to safeguard regional stability while formally defending its core interests on which it can not compromise.

China’s Military Exercises as Strategic Pressure on Japan and the Allies

China’s recent military exercises around Taiwan and in the East China Sea are not merely the demonstrations of force directed at Taipei, but represent a calculated strategy of creating pressure on Japan and the US and to deter intervention, moreover it’s designed to test alliances, and also to normalise China’s military dominance in the western pacific. China significantly ramped up activities around the Japanese-administered Senkaku Islands, Diaoyu Islands in China. Chinese vessels were present in the waters around the islands for record days around the island for three consecutive years, hence effectively creating a permanent coercive presence on Japan’s maritime doorstep.[8]

Furthermore, China together with Russia, had conducted high-profile joint strategic bomber patrols encircling Japan, flying between Okinawa and Miyako Island into the western pacific. Japan’s defence minister denounced these patrols as “clearly intended as a show of force”.[9] This serves to stretch Japan’s defence resources and send a message that involvement in Taiwan would cost a lot to Japanese security. Simultaneously, the large-scale “Justice Mission 2025” drills in late December, simulated a full blockade of Taiwan. Such drills practice denying access to the strategic waterways, like the Miyako Strait. China explicitly framed these escalations as a reaction to US actions, such as major arms sales to Taiwan, which it labels as foreign interference. Lastly, these drills are further contributing to the instability in the region.

Implications for East Asia

The escalation between China and Japan can encourage a security dilemma throughout the East China Sea and Taiwan Strait. Japan’s closer alignment with the US impact China’s calculations, mainly influencing regional military deployments and crises management strategies. Moreover, Bilateral trade among two economic giants obviously remains significant and any disruptions due to political tensions could affect broader regional economic stability. Furthermore, the trajectory of Sino-Japanese relations in the coming years will significantly shape the security architecture of the Asia-Pacific and will eventually affect both regional actors and global stakeholders.

Conclusion

The tensions between China and Japan are turning to become more strategically sensitive. Japan’s security policies,alignment with the US and its remarks regarding Taiwan, represents a growing challenge to regional stability. China’s responses, either diplomatic, economic or military, reflects its desire to avoid uncontrolled escalation while safeguarding its national interests. Lastly, the future of East Asian stability depends on careful management of these tensions, continued dialogue between both neighbours, and recognition of each side’s core security concerns.

Works Cited

[1] Politico. 2025. “Japan 'crossed a red line' with Taiwan remarks, Chinese foreign minister says.”November 23, 2025. https://www.politico.com/news/2025/11/23/japan-red-line-taiwan-china-00666217.

[2] Army Recognition. 2025. “Japan Advances Air Defense Systems Deployment Near Taiwan Amid Heightened Security Concerns.” November 24, 2025. https://www.armyrecognition.com/news/army-news/2025/japan-advances-air-defense-systems-deployment-near-taiwan-amid-heightened-security-concerns.

[3] Al Jazeera. 2025. “Japan gov't greenlights record $58bn defence budget amid regional tension.” December 26, 2025. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/12/26/japan-govt-greenlights-record-58bn-defence-budget-amid-regional-tension.

[4] Thibault, Harold. 2025. “China ramps up retaliatory measures against Japan, suspending travel and seafood purchases.” Le Monde. https://www.lemonde.fr/en/international/article/2025/11/21/china-ramps-up-retaliatory-measures-against-japan-suspending-travel-and-seafood-purchases_6747692_4.html.

[5] Gokce, Saadet. 2025. “Japanese Premier says open to talks with China amid Taiwan tensions.” Anadolu Agency. https://www.aa.com.tr/en/asia-pacific/japanese-premier-says-open-to-talks-with-china-amid-taiwan-tensions/3773984.

[6] YAMAGUCHI, MARI. 2025. “Japanese Cabinet approves record defense spending.” AP News, December 26, 2025. https://apnews.com/article/221b2cb5da0760d6e07f63ac01deba93.

[7] Davidson, Helen, and Jason Tzu. 2025. “Japan's cabinet approves record defence budget amid escalating China tensions.” The Guardian, December 26, 2025. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/dec/26/japan-defence-budget-china.

[8] Butler, Gavin. 2025. “China and Japan boats face off near contested islands as feud worsens.” BBC, December 1, 2025. https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/crk7xjpv8gmo.

[9] CNN. 2025. “Russian bombers join Chinese air patrol near Japan as Tokyo-Beijing tensions simmer.” December 9, 2025. https://edition.cnn.com/2025/12/09/asia/south-korea-japan-china-russia-warplanes-intl-hnk-ml.