Bukele Supported, Democracy Eroded: El Salvador’s Uncertain Future

Hugo Murray is a second year Politics and International Relations. He is interested in political affairs regarding the Americas and is currently researching responses to climate-driven displacement at the Bentham Brooks Institute.

Introduction

Over 6 years ago, the Salvadoran people made an overwhelmingly decisive choice that would irrevocably change the direction of their country for good. Although the effects of such a decision are still up to debate - one thing was clear: something needed to change.

The day-to-day life of the Salvadoran people up to that moment was far from easy. Extortion of businesses, sexual harassment, corruption, violence and murder, caused by wide-spread gang-controlled territory, were common-place. Politicians seemed to have no more answers to give to the victims of these practices.

So when an independent and charismatic Nayib Bukele ran for president in 2019 on the promise to crack down on crime and corruption, it seemed to the people of El Salvador as the only option.

Since then, Bukele appears to have done the impossible - he has effectively turned El Salvador from one of the most dangerous countries on the continent, to one of the safest.

This article looks at what the Salvadoran people have sacrificed in the realisation of this goal, and how Bukelism has sent shockwaves through Latin America.

El Salvador’s tumultuous politics: past and present

El Salvador has experienced its fair share of conflict, economic turmoil and disasters on its way to becoming the state it currently is.

Having to recover from a more than 30-year long military dictatorship, followed by two decades of civil war, El Salvador finally entered its first ‘peaceful’ era in 1992 after peace agreements were signed between the guerrilla units and the governing body.

The years that followed saw a two-party battle over the country between the centre-right ARENA and the Che Guevara-inspired FMNL party, both of which were consistently hit with scandals of corruption, and relatively unable to solve the high rates of violent crime in the country.

The effects of such gang-violence in the 21st century was clear - no ordinary Salvadoran could enjoy long-term safety and prosperity - and so, mass exodus from the country into the United States, Mexico and other neighbouring countries continued (Flemion and Browning, 2019; Huntington, 2024).

Hence, we see what led to such a dramatic collapse of the political elite in 2019, when the tech-savvy independent, Nayib Bukele, won 53% of the vote in the presidential election, beating both of the mainstream political forces.

Running on a populist, anti-establishment campaign, Bukele made promises to completely change the policies of the government in relation to security and corruption which the opposition-led legislature, as well as the judicial branch, showed to be extremely wary of, blocking the funding necessary for the bill to function.

These impediments to the ambitious policies of the incumbent did not last long, as the 2021 legislative elections gave Bukele a super-majority which he used to his favor, concentrating power in the executive by replacing the attorney general and 5 of the supreme court justices with loyalists of his own (Flemion and Browning, 2019).

With both the legislative and judicial branches on his side, Bukele initiated a spree of anti-democratic measures, which included changing the constitution to allow him to run for a 2nd consecutive term in office, as well as subjugating the country to a state of emergency since 2022, in order to effectively mass incarcerate over 80,000 people, or around 1.5% of the population without the need for a fair trial or probable cause (Human Rights Watch, 2024).

More recently, Bukele has been determined to strengthen his relationship to U.S. president Donald Trump, offering to become a prison-hub for those deported by Immigration and Customs Enforcement whom the current government deem “violent criminals” (CNN, 2025).

Implications for the Salvadoran people

On the 18th of July, more than 250 Venezuelan citizens were released from El Salvador and sent back to Venezuela in exchange for 10 Americans detained by Maduro’s government.

Immediately, they are told by the prison director that they “have arrived in Hell”.

What follows are accounts of systematic uses of physical, psychological and sometimes sexual abuse endured by the prisoners, which Humans Rights Watch declares to be a widespread violation of human rights (Reichlin-Melnick, 2025; Human Rights Watch, 2025).

Unlike these 250 Venezuelan citizens, the other 80,000 inmates in similar detention centres are unlikely to see the light of day in the near future, with Bukele’s government extending the power of pretrial detention and establishing mass trials as the norm, giving individuals little chance at proving innocence.

What can be assumed, is that more than 1.5% of the Salvadoran population endures some sort of physical or psychological abuse at the hands of the government as a result of detention without probable cause, without access to a fair and free trial and with zero communication to the outside world.

Outside the mass incarceration centres, political and individual freedoms do not fare any better. Consistent reports of spying and intimidating reporters have damaged Bukele’s perceived encouragement of political disagreement, with more than 20 journalists temporarily or permanently fleeing the country in fear of retribution for their reporting (Human Rights Watch, 2024).

Now into his 2nd year of his 2nd term, Bukele continues to consolidate power into the hands of his party.

With serious acts of gerrymandering, a forced retirement of over ⅓ of El Salvador’s judges and a reduction of the amount of congressional seats from 84-60, Bukele has efficiently consolidated his power and guaranteed his victory in Saladoran politics for as long as he wishes (Hunington, 2024).

And yet, he retains an 85% approval rating amongst voters - one of the highest in the world (Avelar, 2025).

Will the gamble pay off?

Six years in, the people of El Salvador have hedged their bets.

They are risking a future of fair elections, free press and individual rights, for a present of peace and quiet, where children can play in playgrounds and walk to school safely.

But as families have their sons disappear, their rights stripped from them, and their democracy degraded - how long will peace be worth its cost?

Works Cited

1. Avelar, B. (2025). Bukele maintains his enormous popularity despite his image as a ‘dictator’. [online] EL PAÍS English. Available at: https://english.elpais.com/international/2025-06-03/bukele-maintains-his-enormous-popularity-despite-his-image-as-a-dictator.html.

2. CNN (2025). El Salvador offers to house violent US criminals and deportees of any nationality in unprecedented deal. [online] CNN. Available at: https://edition.cnn.com/2025/02/03/americas/el-salvador-migrant-deal-marco-rubio-intl-hnk.

3. Flemion, P.F. and Browning, D.G. (2019). El Salvador - The colonial period. In: Encyclopædia Britannica. [online] Available at: https://www.britannica.com/place/El-Salvador/The-colonial-period.

4. Human Rights Watch (2024). World Report 2025: Rights Trends in El Salvador. [online] Human Rights Watch. Available at: https://www.hrw.org/world-report/2025/country-chapters/el-salvador.

5. Human Rights Watch (2025). ‘You Have Arrived in Hell’. [online] Human Rights Watch. Available at: https://www.hrw.org/report/2025/11/12/you-have-arrived-in-hell/torture-and-other-abuses-against-venezuelans-in-el.

6. Huntington, K. (2024). The Demise of Democracy in El Salvador. [online] Political Science. Available at: https://www.colorado.edu/polisci/2024/03/28/demise-democracy-el-salvador.

7. Reichlin-Melnick, A. (2025). United States Frees Venezuelans Held in El Salvador Following Prisoner Swap - American Immigration Council. [online] American American Immigration Council. Available at: https://www.americanimmigrationcouncil.org/blog/united-states-frees-venezuelans-el-salvador-prisoner-swap/.