Vietnamese Politics and the Strategic Shift from the USA to China

Dat Quoc Tran is a Postgraduate student. He studies International Relations of the Americans and has an interest in American Foreign Policy and South East Asian politics. He is a 2nd Generation Vietnamese immigrant. https://www.linkedin.com/in/dat-t-07673112a/ 

Introduction

Vietnam’s foreign policy has evolved significantly over the past few decades, reflecting the country’s growing role in regional and global geopolitics. Situated at the crossroads of major powers—China to the north and the U.S. to the east—Vietnam’s strategic decisions are crucial not only for its national interests but also for Southeast Asia’s stability. Historically, Vietnam has walked a fine line between balancing these two powers, but recent years have witnessed a shift toward China, signalling a more complex and nuanced geopolitical stance. This article explores the historical underpinnings of Vietnam's foreign policy, the motivations driving its shift from the United States to China, and the broader implications of this recalibration for regional and global politics. 

Historical Context

The historical relationship between Vietnam and China is marked by periods of both resistance and cooperation. Vietnam was under Chinese rule for over a thousand years, and the two countries’ historical ties have shaped modern diplomatic interactions. After gaining independence in 938 CE, Vietnam maintained a complex relationship with China, often resisting its dominance while simultaneously adopting Chinese culture and political philosophy.

Despite centuries of tension, the relationship has remained an enduring factor in Vietnam’s foreign policy decisions. The most significant modern conflict between the two nations occurred in 1979 during the Sino-Vietnamese War, sparked by territorial and ideological disagreements over the Khmer Rouge regime in Cambodia. This historical animosity has continued to inform Vietnam’s cautious engagement with China.

After the Cold War, Vietnam sought to reform its economy through Đổi Mới (Renovation) in 1986, embracing market-oriented reforms while retaining its communist system. This era marked Vietnam’s pivot toward diversifying its foreign relations, which included a growing engagement with the United States as a counterweight to China’s influence in the region. Throughout the 1990s and 2000s, the U.S. became an essential partner in terms of economic growth, and Vietnam integrated itself into global trade and security networks, reducing its dependence on China. 

Contemporary Politics: The Shift from US to China

Vietnam’s relationship with the United States has progressed significantly since the normalisation of relations in the mid-1990s under President Clinton, which included the lifting of the trade embargo from 1995 to 2013, Vietnam’s GDP averaged 6.7% growth annually. Since 2002, the United States and Vietnam have expanded political and security ties. U.S. foreign assistance to Vietnam has grown dramatically, surpassing $100 million per year in 2008 and now totalling more than $1 billion.

However, Vietnam’s relationship with Washington remains complex. Shared concerns over China’s growing influence in the South China Sea have led to close cooperation, including joint military exercises and maritime security initiatives. Despite these common interests, Vietnam remains cautious, carefully avoiding full alignment with the U.S. This hesitation stems from a few key reasons: the risk of antagonising China, ideological differences between Vietnam’s one-party system and the U.S.’s promotion of democracy, and Vietnam’s priority to maintain autonomy in its foreign policy.

In recent years, Vietnam has increasingly deepened its engagement with China, driven by a variety of factors. 

China is Vietnam's largest trading partner, and this economic relationship is a significant factor in Vietnam’s pivot toward Beijing. China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) further entrenched these ties, although Vietnam has expressed caution in fully embracing the initiative due to concerns over sovereignty and debt dependency. Nevertheless, Vietnam has selectively engaged with Chinese infrastructure projects that align with its national development goals, boosting connectivity and trade capacity.

One of the most contentious issues between Vietnam and China remains the South China Sea, where the two countries have overlapping territorial claims. Vietnam has consistently resisted China’s claims to the region, particularly the controversial “nine-dash line”, which covers vast maritime territories. Despite ongoing incidents, including Chinese harassment of Vietnamese fishing vessels and the militarisation of artificial islands, Vietnam has pursued a pragmatic approach.  

Both China and Vietnam are communist states, and this ideological alignment plays a significant role in their bilateral relations. Party-to-party exchanges have facilitated high-level cooperation, particularly in areas such as governance, economic reform, and anti-corruption measures. While historical conflicts remain unresolved, the shared ideological framework provides a platform for deeper cooperation, giving China leverage over Vietnam’s policy decisions. 

Implications of the Shift 

Vietnam’s shift toward China has significant implications for Southeast Asia. As a leading member of ASEAN, Vietnam’s foreign policy choices strongly influence the region’s collective stance on security and economic matters. If Vietnam’s alignment with China grows stronger, it could dilute ASEAN’s unified position on contentious issues, particularly the South China Sea.  

However, Vietnam’s approach also serves as a case study in strategic autonomy, as it seeks to balance relations with both the U.S. and China without becoming overly dependent on either (Bamboo Diplomacy).  

Despite the growing ties with China, Vietnam continues to value its relationship with the United States, particularly in economic and security terms. The U.S. remains a crucial market for Vietnamese exports and an important partner in countering China’s growing regional dominance. Vietnam’s participation in multilateral forums strengthens its ties with Washington, although the U.S.’s emphasis on human rights and democracy often creates friction with Vietnam’s one-party governance model.

While Vietnam continues to hedge its bets, its engagement with both powers reflects a broader trend of maintaining strategic autonomy. Washington’s geopolitical rivalry with Beijing creates challenges for Vietnam, but by sustaining a pragmatic stance, Vietnam can leverage its position to maximise both benefits. 

China’s ability to deepen ties with Vietnam, despite historical grievances, highlights its diplomatic agility. The BRI has expanded China’s economic influence, and its ideological alignment with Vietnam provides Beijing with a unique opportunity to build closer political relations. Through economic leverage, party-to-party exchanges, and the expansion of infrastructure projects, China has solidified its place as a key partner for Vietnam. 

For Beijing, this alignment with Vietnam is a strategic victory in Southeast Asia, enabling China to counterbalance U.S. influence and further entrench its dominance in the region. However, Vietnam’s deep-rooted mistrust of China ensures that this relationship remains balanced, with Vietnam taking care to maintain its sovereignty while benefiting from Beijing’s economic influence. 

Policies, Challenges, and Uncertainties

Bamboo diplomacy refers to Vietnam's distinctive approach to foreign relations, rooted in principles of flexibility, resilience, and independence. Introduced by Nguyen Phu Trong in 2016, Bamboo diplomacy is rooted in principles of self-reliance, adaptability, and the pursuit of national interests. Vietnam’s diplomatic approach involves maintaining a balance of relationships with both global powers and smaller nations, avoiding entanglement in geopolitical rivalries. By 2021, Nguyen Phu Trong used 2021 the imagery of “strong roots, stout trunk, and flexible branches” of the bamboo plant to describe Vietnam's foreign policy approach of having “more friends, fewer foes.”

Vietnam acts according to the requirements of Bamboo Diplomacy in its political relations. For example, on June 25, 2023, the USS Ronald Reagan aircraft carrier from the United States visited Vietnam for the first time since 2018. At the time, Vietnam’s Prime Minister Chinh, upon an invitation from Chinese Premier Li Qang, had travelled to China for an official visit and reached Beijing. These two events are examples of Vietnam’s attempt to balance between the two major powers.  

Vietnam’s delicate balancing act between the U.S. and China presents significant risks. As Vietnam deepens its ties with one major power, it must manage the delicate task of avoiding alienation from the other. This balancing strategy is further complicated by the asymmetric power dynamics of its relations with both countries. Despite the economic benefits of engagement with China, the government faces domestic pressure to take a tougher stance on issues of sovereignty, especially regarding the militarisation of the South China Sea and Chinese intrusions into Vietnamese waters.

With the upcoming Trump presidency, Vietnam faces an uncertain future with regards to how they can continue the Bamboo Diplomacy. The U.S.-Vietnam relationship has strengthened since Trump left office. The two countries upgraded their relationship last year to a “comprehensive strategic partnership,” the highest level of diplomatic ties afforded by Hanoi. President Joe Biden called Vietnam “a critical power in the world and a bellwether in this vital region” and removed the “currency manipulator” label imposed by Trump.  Before Vietnam strengthened its Bamboo Diplomacy, Vietnam was one of the biggest beneficiaries of Donald Trump’s trade war with China during his first term in office. But with the unpredictability of the second Trump presidency, anything is possible as Vietnam “Could easily be a target for such protectionist measures and become collateral damage,” said Leif Schneider, Head of International Law Firm Luther in Vietnam.

Conclusion

Vietnam’s shift toward China represents a pragmatic response to the evolving geopolitical and economic environment. While the U.S. remains a vital partner, Vietnam’s increasing engagement with China underscores the complex realities of navigating great power competition. As Vietnam continues to assert its strategic autonomy, its ability to balance relations with both the U.S. and China will determine its role in the evolving regional order as Southeast Asia has become a focal point for great power competition regarding economics, military and industry. Vietnam faces pressure to align more closely with one side, potentially jeopardising its strategic autonomy, especially now with another Trump presidency on the horizon.