Ukraine’s Winter Crisis: Russia’s Energy War

Veronika Seredenko is a first year Philosophy, Politics and Economics student.

(veronika.seredenko.25@ucl.ac.uk / www.linkedin.com/in/veronika-seredenko)

Introduction

After four years of the full-scale Russian invasion, Ukrainians have become accustomed to the hardships of war. But the fourth winter of the war was the most difficult for Ukrainians. This was due both to significantly colder subzero temperatures than in previous winters and to more destructive Russian attacks. Russia has struck Ukraine's energy infrastructure every winter during the full-scale invasion. This winter, however, the attacks have been more extensive, prolonged, and effective, directed not only against the electricity industry, as in previous years, but also against heat and gas supply systems [1, 2].

Life Under Russian Energy Siege

Throughout this winter, Ukrainian cities have been and continue to be regularly plunged into darkness due to power outages, affecting millions of people [1]. As a result of Russia’s shelling of Ukraine's energy infrastructure, several high-voltage power lines were shut down [3]. Power outages deprive people of light and water, leaving them unable to cook, heat their homes, use elevators, access healthcare, the internet, or even call for help during blackouts [4].

The weather conditions of the winter of 2025-26 turned out to be abnormally harsh for Ukraine. Severe frosts came early, with extremely low temperatures of -20°C, lasting almost the entire month of January without the usual winter thaws [5].

The period from mid-January to the end of February was particularly difficult, when temperatures in many regions dropped to record lows. For example, in Kyiv, frosts reached -25°C, and this temperature lasted for a long time. This created a colossal burden on life-support systems [6]. The consequences of Russian attacks have been much more painful, and repair work extremely difficult due to the significance of the frost factor [7].

At the peak of the attacks, in the bitter cold at the end of January, about 6,000 apartment buildings in the capital of Ukraine were left without heat and light (at temperatures of -14°C) [2]. The International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (IFRC) warned that cold homes have significantly increased risks of hypothermia, frostbite, and respiratory illness, particularly among older people, people with disabilities, and those with chronic conditions [4].

During the middle of winter, with temperatures being as low as -18°C in Kyiv, hundreds of thousands of the capital’s three million residents were enduring long power and water outages. Ordinary things like taking a shower or cooking a meal became a real ordeal. Kyiv residents were shovelling snow to keep water at home; sleeping in full outside clothing; heating bricks on gas stoves to keep warm; putting up tents in their apartments – doing everything they can to survive the coldest and darkest winter of the war. For the first time since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion, the Ukrainian government has declared a state of emergency this winter due to the energy crisis. Across the city, thousands of people have gathered in schools and at makeshift stations, “Points of Invincibility”, where generators have been provided to keep people warm, allow them to charge devices and connect to the internet [8].

The country has survived and, one might say, has already passed the most difficult period of the 2025-26 heating season, despite experts predicting that power outages will continue into the spring. But it has survived so far at the cost of incredible, superhuman efforts of energy workers, repair crews, rescuers and ordinary people. Most shockingly, however, some citizens froze to death in their own homes [5, 9].

Among countless incidents, the story of elderly Kyiv resident Maya Kolesnikova, who posted on Facebook one single message: "I'm freezing!", shocked the country. She had difficulty walking and barely moved with a cane. During the entire time without power, she lay wrapped in blankets with her cat. Her only dream was hot food. Those who came to help – who themselves were without power and heat – reported that the high-rise building where Ms. Kolesnikova lived almost completely froze inside. This story has been and continues to be relevant for many elderly people in the capital [10].

The Frozen Economy

In January 2026, Ukraine's real gross domestic product decreased by 1.4% compared to January of the previous year. Experts say that the reason for this decline is the massive attacks on energy infrastructure, which led to restrictions on access to electricity for households and businesses, especially in Kyiv and other large cities. In addition to slowing economic growth, the energy shortage will also affect inflationary indicators – the economy functioning on generators is much more expensive, and therefore prices have already increased and will continue to increase [2].

The energy sustainability of both large and small businesses under current conditions largely depends on generators, as well as other solutions for autonomous energy supply. Enterprises adapted by mainly switching to generators, solar panels and cogeneration plants. However, in January, the situation deteriorated sharply [11]. According to Reuters, the energy crisis has left Ukraine's economy in its worst state since the Russian full-scale invasion in 2022. Companies are short of generation and are cutting production [12].

This economic contraction directly limits the state's ability to finance reconstruction, humanitarian aid and social protection.

The Deprivation Plan

From the very beginning, Russia has sought to undermine Ukraine’s existence as an independent and sovereign state, and deliberate attacks on civilians, residential areas, urban centres and critical national infrastructure have been a central component of its strategy.

Now, in the twelfth year of Russia’s war against Ukraine and the fourth year of the full-scale invasion, Ukraine is facing the most serious energy crisis in its history. The crisis did not arise as a byproduct of the war, but was deliberately and systematically provoked by Russia’s continued attacks on Ukraine’s energy system [13].

This is evident from the fact that Russia has intensified its attacks on Ukraine’s energy system in recent months [8]. Since the beginning of 2026 alone, 217 attacks on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure have been recorded. In January, Russia launched over 6,000 strike drones, some 5,500 guided bombs, and 158 missiles of various types against this infrastructure [13]. The aggressor changed the tactics of the attacks, concentrating up to 800 drones in each attack on specific energy generation facilities [9].

International Responses and Future Challenges

In February, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said that Russian attacks had damaged all existent Ukrainian power plants [2]. The World Bank estimated that $90.6 billion is needed to restore the Ukrainian energy sector [14]. Minister of Energy of Ukraine, Denys Shmyhal, noted that Ukraine continues negotiations with European partners on strengthening energy sustainability [3].

During a visit by 26 international delegations to Ukraine for the fourth anniversary of the war, President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen announced that the European Union (EU) is allocating €920 million to stabilise Ukraine's energy system, part of a reconstruction programme running until 2027 to prepare for winter 2026-27 [15, 16].

Earlier, the Commission condemned Russia's continued attacks on Ukraine's critical energy infrastructure, highlighting the serious humanitarian consequences they have caused. The Commission made it clear that Russia's attempts to force Ukraine to surrender by using winter as a weapon will not be successful [17]. While the Commission’s efforts are commendable, the scale and timing of this support raise questions, given the severity of the current winter and the damage already sustained. If the war persists, Russia is likely to remain relentless in its attacks, irrespective of weather conditions.

At the same time, humanitarian organisations warn that international aid is not keeping pace with rapidly growing needs. The IFRC says its “Emergency Appeal for Ukraine and affected countries for 2026-27” faces a funding shortfall of more than 300 million Swiss francs, limiting the provision of essential services [4].

This growing gap between needs and response is particularly striking given the scale of international commitments already made. While the EU reports that its member states have collectively provided Ukraine with approximately $197 billion in support – around 35% of which in the form of loans rather than grants – humanitarian funding coverage has nevertheless declined from 88% in 2022 to just 56% in 2025, even as civilian deaths and infrastructure damage continue to rise [18, 19].

Meanwhile, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán wants to stop electricity supplies to Ukraine [12]. Moreover, the United States has not made any significant new aid commitments since 2025, and by the end of that year had disbursed only 58% of the $188 billion previously approved, with deliveries now cut by administrative errors and a delay in energy aid worth approximately $250 million [20, 21].

It is estimated that in 2026, 10.8 million people in the country will need humanitarian assistance [22]. As winter recedes, the humanitarian crisis remains. As civilian harm becomes increasingly normalised and funding declines to its lowest level since the start of the full-scale invasion, the widening gap between humanitarian need and international response raises urgent questions about compliance with international humanitarian law and the willingness of Ukraine’s partners to sustain meaningful support over the long term.

Works Cited

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