T HE BIRTH OF AN IDEOLOGY:During the 21st century, American foreign policy has undergone two distinct shifts. The first was the 9/11 attacks and the ensuing Global War on Terror. Under the Bush
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Administration, the US government moved to reorient its entire global posture to fight to the elusive threat of Islamist terrorism. To this end, American invaded Afghanistan and Iraq over fears that both countries were harbouring terrorists. It also dramatically shifted its relations with other countries. The US scoured the world, looking for reliable allies in the fights against terrorism. Little attention was paid to countries human rights or democratization records. All that mattered is if they were willing to get on board with this new global crusade. As President Bush succinctly put it “Either you are with us, or you are with the terrorists”. As the War on Terror ground on Americans became less interested in hunting down fanatical fighters around the world. Public fear of spectacular 9/11-style attacks diminished. The US gradually shifted its focus away from combatting terrorism to Great Power competition with China and Russia. Both the Trump and Biden administrations have accelerated this shift toward new Great Power competition. Trump moved to unilaterally confront China, primarily through aggressive protectionist trade measures. The incoming Biden team has largely continued this hawkish posture towards China, although with less bluster and more multilateralism. Biden has focused on rebuilding tattered American alliances with European and Asian partners to confront what he sees as Russia and China expansionist regional aims. However, during this time, a new threat has arisen that dwarfs both terrorism and Great Power competition in direct impacts to Americans. That is the problem of Mexican drug trafficking.
During the 21st century, when American foreign policy elites were focused on international terrorism and then Great Power competition, the problem of drug trafficking in Mexico spiralled out of control. In 2006 then Mexican president Felipe Calderon declared war on Mexico’s drug cartels. The move was meant to reassert Mexican government control against the drug cartels that had expanded their power and influence. But instead of reasserting stability, the war has accelerated the problems it was meant to prevent. Since 2006 an estimated 150,000 people have been killed or gone missing. The fighting has done nothing to decrease the flow of drugs into the United States, where over 60,000 people die every year from drug overdoses. Finally,
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the stated goal of the campaign, to reassert government control against the cartels, has proved to be an abject failure. Cartels are increasingly coming to resemble paramilitary militias who seek to directly control territory.
A GROWING DISCORD:
It is difficult to overstate how powerful the cartels have become since 2006. The war has transformed cartels into what journalist Ed Calderon calls ‘narco militias’. The cartels have moved from ordinary criminal organizations into powerful paramilitary organizations with the power to directly challenge the Mexican government. The cartel that best exemplifies this shift from criminals to paramilitaries is the Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG). In recent years, CJNG has risen to become the most dangerous criminal organization in Mexico. This is due to the fact that the group explicitly styles itself as a paramilitary organization. In a viral video released by CJNG,
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cartel members wearing military fatigues and holding assault rifles are seen in front of a convoy of armoured vehicles.
Perhaps the clearest example of the cartels newfound power was in 2019 when the Mexican military arrested Ovidio Guzmán, the son of former Sinaloa cartel leader Joaquín “El Chapo” Guzmán in the city of Culiacan. At first, this would seem like a straightforward victory for the Mexican governments fights against drug traffickers. But then something extraordinary happened. Sinaloa cartel members armed with military-style assault rifles, body armour, and technicals blockaded the entire city of Culiacan. They also surrounded and set fire to a military housing complex in the city. Then the Mexican government took the extraordinary step to release Ovidio Guzmán despite capturing him just hours earlier. The episode was a humiliating defeat for the Mexican government. It also signalled a depressing fact; the cartels could now fight and defeat government security forces in an open battle. In many ways, they had become more powerful than the government trying to defeat them.
The problem of cartel violence and influence has been accelerated by the stagging levels of official corruption. Indeed the former security minister, the man originally selected by former President Calderon to organize the drug war, was arrested by the US for taking millions in bribes from the Sinaloa cartel. The former Mexican defence minister under former President Enrique Peña Nieto was also arrested by American law enforcement on corruption charges. Both instances point to shocking levels of official corruption in the Mexican government that make any effective response to the cartels essentially impossible.
THE AMERICAN DIMENSION:
The lack of attention American foreign policy elites pay to this problem is striking given its scale. The country with which America shares a 3,145-kilometre border has become essentially ungovernable. What’s most striking is how little political elites with-
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in both parties seem to care. For politicians on the right, most notably Donald Trump, Mexico serves as a useful punching bag for racist attacks. Much of the political discourse on the right focuses on portraying Mexico as the non-white ‘other’ that must be defended against. The only time politicians like Trump seem to mention Mexico is in the context of race-baiting attacks on Hispanics. This means that few on the political right are interested in offering any practical solutions. Left-wing in-attention to Mexico is driven by a less sinister motive. Democratic politicians, like President Biden, are currently focusing most of their attention overseas to repairing America’s standing in the world and reassuring allies. So far, the Biden administrations foreign policy has mostly focused on reestablishing international alliances to take on the perceived threats of Russia and China. In Biden’s first major foreign policy address gave only one offhand reference to Mexico compared to five mentions of China and eight mentions of Russia. It seems that both sides of the political spectrum in American are, for different reasons, content to let the many challenges posed by Mexico’s continued deterioration to go unaddressed.
What then would a better American approach to Mexico look like. To start, American foreign policy elites should refocus away from abstract issues of international standing and Great Power competition towards more immediate threats. Neither Russia or China have any aims to attack the US homeland. Both countries are also separated from the US by two major oceans.Mexico shared a massive land border with the United States. The instability and violence in Mexico constantly spills over into the United States in the form of drug overdoses and murder. A more realistic US foreign policy would focus more attention on the immediate problem of Mexican drug violence and allow allies to take the lead in confronting China and Russia. Jake Sullivan, the National Security Advisor, has spoken about making US foreign policy centred around the Middle Class. Mexico is a perfect example of putting this aim into practice. The American Middle Class is currently greatly affected by the problem of drug overdoses. A more practical and sane US foreign policy would focus on this problem far more than the abstract threats posed by Russia and China territorial expansionist goals.
There are several steps that can be taken to reorient American foreign policy towards the immediate threat posed by Mexico’s continued instability and violence. Firstly, the media and political elites should have more informed debates about realistic solutions to this problem. Political leaders should be more open with the public about how they think American can positively impact the situation on the ground. There should also be more sustained American investment in Mexico’s security and stability. Mexico is possibly the most difficult and pressing foreign policy challenge facing the United States right now. The challenging nature of the problem provides a clear rationale for politicians to avoid talking about it. Although there are no obvious solutions, the problem will never be solved so long as US foreign policy elites remain intent on ignoring Mexico.
FIN.
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