Maritime Chokepoints and Their Systemic Risk

Leo Whicker
4 hours ago
4 min read

Leo Whicker is a History, Politics and Economics student. He has previously interned at Clarksons Research within the maritime infrastructure team.

Suez Canal 2021; obstruction caused by the containership “Ever Given” highlighted the venerability of global trade to blockages of maritime chokepoints (1). These narrow passageways serve as crucial shortcuts reducing the length of vessel voyages, allowing goods to be transported faster and cheaper, with lower shipping carbon emissions. These important waterways allow smaller powers to exert disproportionate levels of influence over developed western consumer nations dependent on the smooth uninterrupted operation of global trade.

For instance, historically reference the British and French attempts to control the Suez Canal. Its role in global trade cannot be disputed; opened in 1869, it remains one of most effective maritime “shortcuts” ever built. By reducing journey distance from Asia to Europe by over 6,000 km (2), coupled with continued high level of transits (traversed by 3,426 ships during Q4 2025 (3)) the Suez’s geopolitical influence cannot be overstated. The Canal handles 30% of global container traffic and between 12 to 15% of global trade (4).

The obstruction caused by the “Ever Given” running aground and blocking the Suez Canal between the 23rd and 29th March 2021 (5), symbolised the influence of maritime chokepoints on shipping. During this period, a bottleneck quickly formed of over 400 ships unable to pass.

These delays were significant, holding up effectively $9.6Bn worth of goods for six days. The impact was amplified by Just in Time manufacturing systems (6), which rely on regular shipments of materials and components to continue their production. Discourse, although sparse, has suggested this method to not be conducive to undiversified shipping routes (7).

Maritime insurance markets reacted by raising risk premiums. For instance, the risk analysis company SCOR categorised the Ever Given ground as a wake-up call to “the hidden reality of our economic system” (8). $100m of claims ranging from lost perishable goods to additional staff costs, resulted in losses for reinsurers (and eventual cost increases).

The latest shipping crisis in the Red Sea, with shipping attacked by Yemeni rebels (in solidarity with Palestinians and their ongoing conflict with Israel) has also caused insurance risk premium rises. Not surprising, due to the Yemenis use of missiles and drones (9) to intercept and in some cases sink western commercial vessels. Especially significant is the Bab el-Mandeb straight, just 20 miles wide, ideal for hijacking.

Western companies have reacted, for example BP ending its shipments of all oil and gas in the region, and steeply rising insurance risk premiums for vessels navigating high-risk waterways. For instance, the premium paid by shipping companies was about 0.07% of the value of the ship. However, in a few days it reached between 0.5 to 0.7% (10), showing that this chokepoint is conducive to serious shipping interference.

As a result of the increased risk of passage (due to these attacks), Clarksons Research reported a 73% decrease in shipping arriving in the Gulf of Aden, compared to January 2023 (11). More significantly the firm also suggested vessel rerouting via the Cape of Good Hope increased the demand for global shipping by 2.5%.

Taken together the knock-on effects of disruption at critical maritime chokepoints have far-reaching implications on the wider shipping industry (which responded with resilience and flexibility of routing), but with cost increases and uncertainty among supply chains, this ultimately lead to significant global core goods inflation in 2024.

Works Cited