Maduro Maintains His Grip: 2024 Venezuelan Election

Isabel Thwin is a final-year Arts and Sciences student focusing on Global Politics, Law and Computer Science. She is primarily interested in democratic backsliding, elections and the appeal of strongman leaders. 

Introduction

Although this year of elections has seen incumbents suffering devastating defeats across the globe, Venezuela’s incumbent president, Nicolas Maduro, has managed to cling firmly to power. On 28 July 2024, the Venezuelan people headed to the polls to elect their president for the next 6 years. The supposed result: Maduro won 51.21% of votes over his rival Edmundo González Urrutia’s 44.2%, as declared by the National Electoral Council (CNE). [1] However, this announcement sparked dispute from the opposition, the Unitary Platform, over the reliability of the results, and intense outrage over a lack of transparency in the vote tabulation process. 

Contested Results 

There is much evidence to substantiate the opposition’s assertion. Well ahead of election day, Maduro was polling far behind his opponents across all demographics. [2] The exit polls are reflective of this disapproval as well, with Maduro garnering just 31% of the vote, in contrast to González’s 65%. [3] Tactfully, the Unitary Platform anticipated election difficulties in advance, and had set up opposition activists at the polls to tally votes themselves as a hedge against Maduro’s fraud. [4] Since July, independent statistical research has also been conducted to test the probability of the CNE’s vote count through p-value analysis. The researchers assert that their findings indicate a probability of less than 2 in 10 million of arriving at the CNE's reported result, strongly suggesting that the election outcome was manipulated. [5] All of this is corroborated by election reports of the few independent election observer groups that were allowed on the ground condemning the election. [6] 

Maduro firmly disputes these claims. In October 2023, he signed the Barbados agreement with the Unitary Platform, agreeing to a fairer electoral framework where he would refrain from electoral interference. [7] This led to an easing of U.S. oil sanctions. Top prosecutor and Maduro loyalist, Tarek Saab, has reacted to scepticism of the election's legitimacy by announcing a criminal investigation into the opposition's results website, citing conspiracy concerns. [8] Access to this website has also been restricted within Venezuela, and more than 1200 activists have been detained since election day. [9]  Despite mounting pressure to publish voting records, the CNE has said it is unable to do so due to a hacking incident that compromised the data. [10]

Maduro’s Failures in Office

Maduro was first elected as president after being handpicked as a successor to the wildly popular socialist revolutionary, Hugo Chávez, who died of cancer in 2013. [11] During his time in office, Maduro has struggled to garner the same levels of support as his predecessor. His lack of charisma has forced him to stay largely reliant on nostalgia, frequently invoking Chávez’s legacy to stir enthusiasm among Chavismo supporters. [12] 

In addition to his personal shortcomings, Maduro has been a disaster in office. Economic mismanagement culminated in severe poverty and drove the mass migration of over 7 million Venezuelans, and ill-advised political appointments further damaged his credibility. The Venezuelans' verdict is damning: Maduro is widely regarded as the weakest president in the country’s history. [13]

A Burning Opposition Movement

Despite, or perhaps as a consequence of, the dire predicament of Venezuelans, there has been strong hope for change. Although the previous opposition leader, María Corina Machado, who had an overwhelming primary win, was banned from running as president, her replacement, González, a former diplomat and respected academic, reinvigorated the opposition movement. [14] With a viable campaign to get behind, Venezuelans were optimistic about a way out from Maduro. Surveys indicated that a significant group thought the opposition could win the 2024 election and transition into power. [15]

The opposition was hugely successful in its plan to tabulate a vote count independent of the government, facing minimal challenges in recruiting volunteers thanks to widespread enthusiasm for participation. Approximately 5000 workshops were held for volunteers across the country which covered election laws and volunteer responsibilities. [16] Volunteers took on a variety of roles, such as election observers, tally scanners responsible for uploading results to a central database, drivers, cooks, and IT specialists overseeing the website. [17] Their enthusiasm was noted by election observer teams from The Carter Center. [18]

Blatant Electoral Manipulation

To limit the opposition’s ability to challenge his power, Maduro employed numerous methods of opponent and voter suppression before and during the election. In addition to Machado's 15-year ban from office (a decision upheld by the court) [19], voters were intimidated by soldiers stationed at polling stations [20], media platforms for political dissent were suppressed, and disinformation about opponents was propagated through government-controlled media. [21] The CNE also posed challenges to candidate registration and ensured that a majority of successfully registered candidates did not present significant risks to Maudro’s election. [22] Political opponents were also prosecuted with no due process. 

It comes as no surprise that Maduro used such tactics on election day. Throughout his rule, he has employed similar tactics and engaged in executive aggrandisement, ending presidential term limits and packing the courts with loyalists. [23]

Aftermath and What Lies Ahead 

Venezuela’s next presidential term commences on January 10. Although Maduro and his supporters' claims of a genuine electoral victory are difficult to back up, Maduro is on track to remain in his position. González was forced to sign a conceding agreement and has sought asylum in Spain. [24] Machado remains in hiding and risks imprisonment and death, but is adamant about remaining in Venezuela to continue the fight. [25] She has called on other countries to support González’s win instead of demanding a new election. [26] Even though the elections were followed by a historic wave of protests [27], they were swiftly suppressed by the ruling regime, resulting in 22 deaths, and hundreds of injuries, sparking human rights concerns. [28] Devastatingly for the Venezuelan people, the world seems too preoccupied with other global crises like Ukraine and Gaza, to pay extended attention to their plight. 

Maduro faces countless challenges ahead. His relationships with his leftist South American counterparts in Brazil and Columbia have grown more fragile, which could lead to isolation in the region. [29] Of course, he still has a catastrophic humanitarian and economic crisis in his hands, a problem which is only exacerbated by an electorate that has rather successfully mobilised a passionate opposition movement. Even if Maduro faces no real, formal consequences for electoral fraud, whether these issues can be overcome (or suppressed) could determine if his time in power is long-lasting.

Works Cited

[1] Torres, P., Jones, S. and Phillips, T. (2024). Venezuela election: Maduro declared winner by government-controlled authority. [online] The Guardian. Available at: https://www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/jul/29/venezuela-election-nicolas-maduro-edmundo-gonzalez-urrutia-results [Accessed 11 Nov. 2024].

‌[2] AS/COA. (2024). Poll Tracker: Venezuela’s 2024 Presidential Election. [online] Available at: https://www.as-coa.org/articles/poll-tracker-venezuelas-2024-presidential-election [Accessed 11 Nov. 2024].

[3] Edison Research. (2024). Edison Research Conducts Exit Poll in Venezuela - Edison Research. [online] Edison Research. Available at: https://www.edisonresearch.com/edison-research-conducts-exit-poll-in-venezuela/ [Accessed 11 Nov. 2024].

‌[4] Rogero, T. (2024). How Venezuela’s opposition proved its election win: ‘A brilliant political move’. [online] The Guardian. Available at: https://www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/aug/10/gonzalez-proof-win-venezuela-election-vote-tally-maduro [Accessed 11 Nov. 2024].

‌[5] Thraves, C. (2024). Ten p-values for the 2024 Venezuelan Presidential Election. Available at SSRN 4930526., pp.5-6.

[6] The Carter Center. (2024). Carter Center Statement on Venezuela Election. [online] Available at: https://www.cartercenter.org/news/pr/2024/venezuela-073024.html [Accessed 11 Nov. 2024].

‌[7] Congressional Research Service. (2024). Venezuela’s 2024 Presidential Election. Available at: https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/IN/IN12354 [Accessed 11 Nov. 2024], pp.1-3.

[8] Rogero, T. (2024). How Venezuela’s opposition proved its election win: ‘A brilliant political move’. [online] The Guardian. Available at: https://www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/aug/10/gonzalez-proof-win-venezuela-election-vote-tally-maduro [Accessed 11 Nov. 2024].

‌[9] ibid.

[10] Jaroslav Lukiv (2024). Venezuela: González ‘forced’ to accept Maduro election win. [online] BBC News. Available at: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c2kdx0zx30no [Accessed 11 Nov. 2024].

[11] Messari, N. (2024). Venezuela at the crossroads: The presidential elections of July 28 and their consequences. Policy Center For The New South. Available at: https://www.policycenter.ma/sites/default/files/2024-07/PB_38-24_Nizar%20Messari.pdf, pp.2-6.

[12] Oner, I. (2021). Nicolas Maduro: A populist without popularity. [online] European Center for Populism Studies. Available at: https://www.populismstudies.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/ECPS-Leader-Profile-Series-5-2.pdf, p.6.

[13] ibid.

[14] Rogero, T. (2024). How Venezuela’s opposition proved its election win: ‘A brilliant political move’. [online] The Guardian. Available at: https://www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/aug/10/gonzalez-proof-win-venezuela-election-vote-tally-maduro [Accessed 11 Nov. 2024].

‌[15] AS/COA. (2024). Poll Tracker: Venezuela’s 2024 Presidential Election. [online] Available at: https://www.as-coa.org/articles/poll-tracker-venezuelas-2024-presidential-election [Accessed 11 Nov. 2024].

‌[16] Rogero, T. (2024). How Venezuela’s opposition proved its election win: ‘A brilliant political move’. [online] The Guardian. Available at: https://www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/aug/10/gonzalez-proof-win-venezuela-election-vote-tally-maduro [Accessed 11 Nov. 2024].

‌[17] ibid.

[18] The Carter Center. (2024). Carter Center Statement on Venezuela Election. [online] Available at: https://www.cartercenter.org/news/pr/2024/venezuela-073024.html [Accessed 11 Nov. 2024].

[19] Freedom House. (2020). Venezuela: About the Project: Election Watch 2024 Country Report | Freedom House. [online] Available at: https://freedomhouse.org/country/venezuela/about-project-election-watch/2024 [Accessed 11 Nov. 2024].

‌[20] Rogero, T. (2024). How Venezuela’s opposition proved its election win: ‘A brilliant political move’. [online] The Guardian. Available at: https://www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/aug/10/gonzalez-proof-win-venezuela-election-vote-tally-maduro [Accessed 11 Nov. 2024].

[21] Freedom House. (2020). Venezuela: About the Project: Election Watch 2024 Country Report | Freedom House. [online] Available at: https://freedomhouse.org/country/venezuela/about-project-election-watch/2024 [Accessed 11 Nov. 2024].

[22] ibid.

[23] Ioanes, E. (2024). Venezuela’s Maduro just tightened his grip on power. What comes next? [online] Vox. Available at: https://www.vox.com/world-politics/363558/venezuela-maduro-elections-south-america-machado-gonzalez-chavez-oil [Accessed 11 Nov. 2024].

‌[24] Jaroslav Lukiv (2024). Venezuela: González ‘forced’ to accept Maduro election win. [online] BBC News. Available at: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c2kdx0zx30no [Accessed 11 Nov. 2024].

‌[25] Wells, I. (2024). Venezuela opposition: Everyone knows we won election. [online] BBC News. Available at: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c5ypreexqxlo [Accessed 11 Nov. 2024].

[26] ibid.

[27] Breda, T. (2024). 2024 Venezuela election protests: harsher repression at home and more global reach than in 2019. [online] ACLED. Available at: https://acleddata.com/2024/08/29/venezuela-election-protests-harsher-repression-at-home-and-more-global-reach-than-in-2019/ [Accessed 11 Nov. 2024].

[28] Martini, E. (2024). Venezuela’s 2024 election remains hotly contested. [online] Diplomatic Courier. Available at: https://www.diplomaticourier.com/posts/venezuelas-2024-election-remains-hotly-contested [Accessed 11 Nov. 2024].

[29] Shamim, S. and Melimopoulos, E. (2024). After Edmundo Gonzalez flees, what’s next for Venezuela and its opposition? [online] Al Jazeera. Available at: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/9/9/after-edmundo-gonzalez-flees-whats-next-for-venezuela-and-its-opposition [Accessed 11 Nov. 2024].