Has the Belgian cordon sanitaire been broken in the aftermath of the 2024 local elections?
Hendrik Brenninkmeijer is a second-year Arts and Sciences student. He participated in the 2024 edition of the Model North Sea Neighbours Conference held at the Dutch embassy, where he discussed and gained insight into the bilateral relations between the Netherlands and the United Kingdom. (LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/hendrikbrenninkmeijer/)
On 13 October 2024, local elections took place in Belgium. Unlike federal elections, which happen every four years, local elections occur every six years. The local elections of 2024 were highly anticipated because of two major reasons. First, it was the first time an election took place in Flanders, the Dutch-speaking region of Belgium, without compulsory voting (De Hert, 2024). Hence, it was uncertain how high the voter turnout would be, which voter groups would turn out to vote, and the effect this would have on the election results. Second, there was the question of whether the far-right Flemish-nationalist Flemish Interest (VB) party would be able to govern for the first time, albeit on a local rather than a regional or national level. This question was especially relevant for this election edition as in the federal election of June 2024, VB became the second biggest party after the centre-right New Flemish Alliance party, with VB obtaining 13.8% of the national vote (VRT NWS, 2024). However, while VB has been the second biggest political party in Belgium since the federal election of 2019, they have yet to govern on any level due to a so-called “cordon sanitaire” being imposed on them by the majority of the other Belgian political parties.
The cordon sanitaire is an agreement between parties to reject any cooperation with a certain political party due to certain aspects of that party (Bogaards, 2020). Often, a cordon is imposed on a political party that has extreme and “anti-democratic” viewpoints to protect democracy (Bogaards, 2020). The cordon sanitaire has been imposed on VB not particularly due to its striving for the dissolution of the Belgian State and Flemish independence, but more so because of its xenophobic and neo-racist tendencies (Bogaards, 2020). Due to the cordon, VB is unable to cooperate with any other political party on any political level. In Wallonia, the French-speaking region of Belgium, there is even a “cordon médiatique” imposed on VB, meaning that VB are not allowed to participate in live interviews or debates in the public French-speaking press (Backes, Lindenberger and Rochtus, 2023, pp.152). The first cordon sanitaire in Belgium was established in 1989, when the Flemish Socialists, Liberal, Green, Christian-Democrat parties and the nationalist Volksunie signed an agreement to not conclude any political agreements with VB on any level of democratically elected bodies, whether it is at a municipal, regional, national or European level (Bogaards, 2020). Nevertheless, this initial convenant only lasted 40 days after the Flemish nationalists, Liberal and Christian Democrats left it, highlighting the controversy surrounding this measure (Bogaards, 2020). Since then, the agreement has been unofficial but still resulted in the same outcome, namely VB being unable to govern.
Due to the rise of VB in the last 2 federal elections, the debate about whether a cordon sanitaire should be imposed and its effectiveness in defending democracy has resurfaced. Opponents of the cordon claim that VB has become too big to be ignored, and that the cordon strengthens its extrinsic image and, therefore, its populist appeal as they get barely challenged on their content (Abts, 2024). In addition, they also believe that, due to its strong image, VB can easily collect every protest vote stemming from voters who are dissatisfied with the system as a whole (Abts, 2024). Supporters of the cordon argue that the cordon is needed to prevent the normalisation of far-right thinking and defend democratic culture (Abts, 2024). Bogaards (2020) views Belgium as the combination of a militant and consociational democracy, hence, a militant consociational democracy. This type of democracy tries to bridge the societal divisions between parties through political inclusion and compromise, but only to the extent that parties still agree to the current liberal democratic system (Bogaards, 2020). There has been criticism towards this combination of liberalism and democracy, which runs under the assumption that the current government is democratic and anti-system parties are undemocratic; more focus should be placed on the different understandings of democracy between parties (Bogaards, 2020).
In the two-and-a-half weeks after the local elections took place and when this article was written, two remarkable events occurred concerning the cordon sanitaire. First, on election day itself, the local division of VB in Ninove, a small municipality in East-Flanders, called ‘Forza Ninove’, won an absolute majority of the seats in the municipal council with 47.4% of the vote (Boukhalfa, 2024). Hence, it is clear that VB would govern locally for the first time in its history. While Forza Ninove’s leader, Guy D’haeseleer, said that the cordon sanitaire is “definitely consigned to the bin”, he obtained an absolute majority and thus will not need to cooperate with any other party. Therefore, the cordon sanitaire has not been broken in this instance (Boukhalfa, 2024). Second, six days after local election day, it was reported in the media that VB would govern in a coalition for the first time in its history in the municipal council of Ranst, a small municipality located in Antwerp (Michiels, 2024). VB will govern in a coalition with PIT, a local party and Vrij Ranst, the local division of the Flemish Liberal party (Michiels, 2024). What is even more remarkable is that VB is only the 3rd biggest party in Ranst, with 14.6% of the vote, suggesting that VB was more eager to join the coalition than other national parties (Michiels, 2024). Nonetheless, the local VB division in Ranst had to remove VB from its name to join the coalition and changed its name to “Ons Ranst” (Our Ranst) (Michielsen, 2024).
Has VB broken the cordon sanitaire? Although VB will govern in a coalition for the first time in history, it has not broken the cordon sanitaire. The cordon sanitaire is an agreement between multiple national parties, stating that they would never cooperate with VB (Tex Van berlaer, 2024). In theory, none of the national parties are cooperating with VB in Ranst. PIT is a local party that is not tied to any national party, whereas members of Vrij Ranst that possessed membership of the Flemish Liberal party were kicked out with immediate effect by its chairwoman when the news of a coalition with VB became apparent (Tex Van berlaer, 2024). In consequence, none of the members of Vrij Ranst represent the Flemish Liberal party anymore. One could even argue that the cordon sanitaire has been further strengthened since every individual member of any national party will now think twice about collaborating with VB (Tex Van berlaer, 2024).
What do the events of the last two weeks mean for the future of the cordon sanitaire in Belgium? The future of the cordon largely depends on how current issues in Belgium, such as uncontrolled immigration and safety, will be handled by the new federal and regional governments. VB is the party that owns these issues and can capitalise on the unresponsiveness and failure of past governments to address them (Bogaards, 2020). If these issues are not addressed in the future, VB will keep its momentum, especially as VB is not a threat to Belgian democracy but rather its manifesto is perceived by some of the other parties to be at crossroads with democracy and an open society (Bogaards, 2020). Hence, as long as the uncontrolled migration and safety concerns are not addressed, and VB does not make any massive political blunders in Ninove or Ranst, their momentum will continue. The coalition in Ranst shows that the stigma surrounding cooperation with VB has significantly decreased. Nevertheless, when this article was written, not all municipal councils had been formed, so who knows what developments might still happen.
Works Cited
Abts, K. (2024). Het cordon sanitaire in de balans: tussen strategie en democratische principes. Samenleving & Politiek, 31(2), Feb.
Backes, U., Lindenberger, T. and Rochtus, D. (2023). Civil Democracy Protection. Taylor & Francis, pp.147–158.
Bogaards, M. (2020). Militant Consociational Democracy: The Political Exclusion of the Extreme Right in Belgium. Springer eBooks, pp.175–200. doi:https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-40802-2_8.
Boukhalfa, I. (2024). Guy D’haeseleer wordt eerste Vlaams Belang-burgemeester: ‘Cordon definitief naar de prullenmand’. [online] vrtnws.be. Available at: https://www.vrt.be/vrtnws/nl/2024/10/13/ninove-guy-dhaeseleer-verkiezingen-gemeenteraad-cordon-absolute/ [Accessed 30 Oct. 2024].
De Hert, J. (2024). Geen opkomstplicht meer: moet je nog gaan stemmen? [online] vrtnws.be. Available at: https://www.vrt.be/vrtnws/nl/2024/08/21/gemeenteraadsverkiezingen-2024-is-stemmen-verplicht/ [Accessed 31 Oct. 2024].
Michiels, C. (2024). Hoe het cordon sanitaire dit weekend tegelijk gebroken en versterkt is. [online] vrtnws.be. Available at: https://www.vrt.be/vrtnws/nl/2024/10/20/cordon-sanitaire-ranst-vlaams-belang-lokale-verkiezingen-cd-v-op/ [Accessed 28 Oct. 2024].
Michielsen, T. (2024). Cordon sanitaire rond Vlaams Belang voor het eerst doorbroken in Ranst. [online] De Tijd. Available at: https://www.tijd.be/politiek-economie/belgie/algemeen/cordon-sanitaire-rond-vlaams-belang-voor-het-eerst-doorbroken-in-ranst/10569801.html [Accessed 19 Oct. 2024].
Tex Van berlaer (2024). Sneuvelt het cordon sanitaire nu écht in Ranst? ‘Je kan evengoed zeggen dat het net standhoudt’. [online] Knack. Available at: https://www.knack.be/nieuws/belgie/politiek/is-het-cordon-nu-echt-doorbroken/ [Accessed 28 Oct. 2024].
VRT NWS (2024). Verkiezingsuitslagen 2024 | VRT NWS: nieuws. [online] VRTNWS. Available at: https://www.vrt.be/vrtnws/nl/kies24/uitslagen/#kamer/het_rijk/belgie/percentages [Accessed 31 Oct. 2024].
