From Conflict to Cooperation: An Analysis of the Impact of Saudi-Iranian Diplomatic Ties on the Middle East and Beyond.

The complex history of Saudi-Iranian relations spans over four decades, characterised by a prolonged period of tension with occasional temporary easing during the 1990s, followed by intensified rivalry in the past two decades (Wimmen, 2023). Seven years ago, Riyadh formally severed ties with Tehran, signalling a deepening rift between the two nations, despite previous publicised efforts to reconcile through talks hosted by Iraq and Oman (Wimmen, 2023). The recent accord, facilitated unexpectedly by China in March, brought about a significant breakthrough in Saudi-Iranian relations, marked by a diplomatic gathering in Beijing attended by the foreign ministers of both countries, Prince Faisal bin Farhan Al Saud and Hossein Amirabdollahian (Al Jazeera, 2023). During this meeting, Saudi Arabia and Iran expressed commitment to progress by agreeing to reopen diplomatic agendas, re-establish direct communication channels, encourage reciprocal visits, streamline visa processes, and explore the potential resumption of flights (Al Jazeera, 2023). This landmark agreement holds profound implications for the region, highlighting a shifting geopolitical landscape with Beijing's increasing influence and the diminishing role of the United States (Al Jazeera, 2023). The resumption of ties between Saudi Arabia and Iran after years of hostility reflects the potential for transformative change in the Middle East and underscores the role of external actors in facilitating diplomatic breakthroughs. These recent developments have complex dynamics, shaped by competing regional agendas and their implications on devastating conflicts in Yemen and Syria, as well as instability in Lebanon and Iraq (Wimmen, 2023). Tensions have been further intensified by concerns among several Gulf Arab states regarding direct threats from Iranian proxies, alleged Iranian support for dissident movements, Israel's perception of Iran's nuclear program as an existential threat, Tehran's accusations against Israel, and Saudi Arabia's alleged support for ethnic opposition groups and hostile Iranian diaspora media (Wimmen, 2023). With this historical backdrop, this article aims to analyse the political and economic impact of the newfound diplomatic ties between Saudi Arabia and Iran on the rest of the Middle East.

Rivalry and Conflict: Saudi Arabia and Iran's Proxy Wars

In the volatile realm of Middle Eastern politics, the rivalry between Saudi Arabia and Iran has ignited a series of proxy wars, leaving a trail of conflict and instability throughout the region. It all began in 1979 when Iran underwent a seismic shift with the Islamic Revolution, alarming Saudi Arabia, a fellow dynastic power, as it feared the spread of revolutionary zeal. The tensions escalated during the Iran-Iraq War from 1980 to 1988, with Saudi Arabia supporting Iraq and Iran resenting this backing of its enemy (Reuters, 2023). A pivotal moment came in 1987 when clashes during the Muslim pilgrimage in Mecca resulted in hundreds of deaths, straining Saudi-Iranian relations to the brink. Although relations were partially restored in subsequent years, events such as the U.S.-led invasion of Iraq in 2003, the Lebanese power struggle following the assassination of Rafik al-Hariri in 2005, and the Arab Spring in 2011 further exacerbated the rivalry (Reuters, 2023). The Syrian civil war and the Saudi-led intervention in Yemen also served as battlefields for their proxy conflicts, perpetuating regional instability and exacerbating sectarian tensions (Reuters, 2023). The impact of this rivalry extends beyond the two countries, shaping the political landscape of the Middle East and hindering efforts for peace and stability. Understanding the history and dynamics of this rivalry is crucial to unravelling the complex web of conflicts and seeking potential avenues for resolution and cooperation in the region.

Shifting Dynamics: Recent Developments in Saudi-Iranian Relations

The recent turn of events in Saudi-Iranian relations signify a remarkable shift from rivalry to reconciliation and cooperation, with both countries engaging in high-level meetings and dialogues. Agreements have been reached to restore diplomatic missions, facilitate travel arrangements, and discuss the resumption of flights (Al Jazeera, 2023). The positive nature of the meetings and the shared emphasis on stability and sustainable security have been highlighted by Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian (Al Jazeera, 2023). This historic development was made possible through the mediation of China, demonstrating its growing influence in the region. The changing dynamics of power in the Middle East are further evident as Saudi Arabia explores the possibility of restoring ties with Syria and re-engaging with Turkey, while Iran appoints a new ambassador to the United Arab Emirates (Al Jazeera, 2023). Although the reconciliation may serve mutual interests and build trust, it does not represent a complete strategic shift or significantly transform the regional security environment in the short term (Divsallar & Alghannam, 2023). However, it is a crucial step toward regional integration and the establishment of a peaceful and cooperative security system in the Gulf. The key challenges ahead lie in sustaining the current positive political climate, overcoming obstacles, understanding the motives of Tehran and Riyadh, and addressing the role of potential spoilers in the process (Divsallar & Alghannam, 2023). These developments are closely watched, as historic rivals venture into uncharted territory, leaving behind years of animosity and paving the way for a new era of collaboration.

Geopolitical Implications of Saudi-Iranian Diplomatic Ties

The recent Chinese-sponsored agreement to restore diplomatic relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia has significant geopolitical implications. The unexpected agreement raises questions about the potential shift in China's role in a region traditionally dominated by the United States (Wimmen, 2023). It also holds the potential to manage or resolve conflicts in the Middle East, such as the devastating wars in Yemen and Syria, and the instability in Lebanon and Iraq. The deal could reduce the security concerns of Gulf Arab states and open the door for a security dialogue among Gulf Arab states, Iran, and Iraq (Wimmen, 2023). However, the success of the deal depends on whether Iran and Saudi Arabia refrain from interfering in the domestic politics of other countries in the region. In Iraq, the agreement could lower tensions and pave the way for better relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia. Iraq has been trying to bring its neighbours closer together and has made efforts to strengthen its ties with Saudi Arabia (Wimmen, 2023). The deal may also have implications for Israel, which sees Iran's nuclear program as a strategic threat. Israeli officials are concerned that the Saudi-Iranian deal may hinder their efforts to build an anti-Iran coalition in the region. However, Israel and the U.S. have indicated that they do not see the Saudi-Iranian détente as an obstacle to improving Israeli-Saudi ties (Wimmen, 2023). In Lebanon, the Saudi-Iranian rivalry has been a major hurdle in reaching a compromise to address the country's economic crisis. Politicians on both sides are cautiously optimistic about the deal's potential to facilitate a resolution, however it is unlikely that Lebanon will be a priority for either Iran or Saudi Arabia in the near term (Wimmen, 2023). While the Saudi-Iranian agreement has the potential to reshape regional dynamics and reduce tensions, the prospect of swift resolutions to long-standing conflicts remains slim.

Economic Cooperation and Challenges

Saudi Arabia's decision to engage in economic cooperation with Iran marks a shift from political and security-based competition to a more economically focused approach, as it recognizes the high costs associated with the latter. The agreement holds several direct reasons for Saudi Arabia's involvement. Firstly, the Kingdom prioritises its social and economic transformation program outlined in Vision 2030, acknowledging that regional stability, fostered through normalised relations with Iran, is crucial for its success (Divsallar & Alghannam, 2023). Avoiding tensions with Tehran resulting from alignment with Western powers, Saudi Arabia aims to safeguard its social transformation program by maintaining strategic ambiguity, as observed in its approach towards Ukraine. Additionally, Saudi Arabia's strategic interests with China, a country with both political and economic influence over Iran, are solidified through the agreement (Divsallar & Alghannam, 2023). Leveraging China's presence, Saudi Arabia expects a more durable agreement, as Iran is inclined to fulfil its obligations to avoid tarnishing its ally's image. Saudi Arabia's main concern remains the stability of the region, recognizing the economic benefits of transforming the zero-sum game dynamics, including access to Iran's large market (Divsallar & Alghannam, 2023). On the other hand, China's increasing dependence on Middle Eastern oil due to its growing economy and domestic energy needs strengthens the significance of Saudi Arabia and Iran as major suppliers. The two Gulf producers satisfy China's oil demand, with Iran's trade heavily relying on China, leading to a comprehensive cooperation document and multiple memoranda of understanding to enhance trade and economic ties (Qaed, 2023). China's promised $400 billion investment in Iran supports its goal of finding advanced technology and production methods for oil exploitation (Qaed, 2023). Moreover, China's impartiality and alternative role to the United States in the Gulf region contribute to its reputation as a neutral power, allowing it to mediate between Iran and Saudi Arabia successfully. This economic cooperation serves as a catalyst for stability and paves the way for further economic growth in the Middle East.

Managing the Saudi-Iranian Relationship: Implications for Regional and Global Stability

The restoration of diplomatic ties between Iran and Saudi Arabia, facilitated by China, carries significant implications for the stability and geopolitical landscape of the Middle East. The involvement of China in brokering the agreement has raised questions about its emerging role in a region traditionally dominated by the United States (Wimmen, 2023). This unexpected development has the potential to reshape the dynamics of power in the Middle East, but its success in managing conflicts and fostering stability remains uncertain. The agreement holds promise for managing the ongoing devastating wars in Yemen and Syria, as well as fueling instability in Lebanon and Iraq (Wimmen, 2023). Gulf Arab states, including the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, and Oman, view the deal as a positive step toward regional stability and prosperity. However, the effectiveness of the agreement will depend on both Iran and Saudi Arabia refraining from interfering in the internal affairs of other countries in the region. In Iraq, where both Iran and Saudi Arabia exert significant influence, the agreement could potentially lower tensions and open avenues for improved relations and increased Saudi investment (Wimmen, 2023). Iraq has been actively facilitating dialogue between the two nations, and the diplomatic breakthrough may provide an opportunity for progress in resolving conflicts and advancing stability. Israel, on the other hand, views the Saudi-Iranian détente with concern, as it may hinder efforts to build a regional coalition against Iran and diminish the role of the United States in the region (Wimmen, 2023). Nonetheless, both Israel and the United States have indicated that the agreement does not impede their goals of enhancing Israeli-Saudi ties. In Lebanon, the longstanding Saudi-Iranian rivalry has impeded efforts to address the country's political and economic crisis. While the Beijing agreement is cautiously seen as potentially beneficial by both sides, it is unlikely to be an immediate priority for either Iran or Saudi Arabia in the near term (Divsallar & Alghannam, 2023). While the agreement presents opportunities for economic cooperation and regional stability, challenges and obstacles to swift solutions remain significant. The differing motives and objectives of Riyadh and Tehran pose both opportunities and risks, with the potential for a fragile reconciliation that could be reversed if objectives are met (Divsallar & Alghannam, 2023). The interest-based nature of the deal allows for the expansion of areas of mutual interest, but the questions surrounding the genuineness of the agreement highlight the need to navigate these challenges for a more enduring reconciliation.