Canada-US relations: Invasion, Wargames and Minnetoba

Jonathan Dusse is a first year Politics and International Relations student. He interned at the German parliament where he strengthened his interest in political cooperation and governance.

Introduction

Early in Trump’s second term as the United States president he was keen on declaring multiple territories as belonging to the US, including the claim that Canada should be incorporated as the 51st state of the US. After a sterner stance towards the United States that followed the election of Carney as Canada’s prime minister, the tides have shifted somewhat.

Carney’s electoral victory was crucially based on his defiance towards Trump, whose foreign policy push has been critically eyed by most Canadians [1]. At the World Economic Forum in Davos Carney declared the end of the rule based order, although he did not mention the US directly, and the need for so-called ‘middle powers’ to forge stronger alliances [2]. This led to further cooling down along the longest border in the world. At the same time as the World Economic Forum was held in Davos Canada even wargamed a possible US invasion [3], seemingly preparing for the worst. This is a further escalation in the relations between two countries who have long been seen as great friends.

No matter the trouble surrounding possible US aggression toward Canada, recently light has been shed on the opposite possibility of Canada incorporating US territory. Following domestic unrest caused by the deployment of ICE in Minneapolis, Minnesota, a protest movement has gained steam for the state becoming Canada’s 11th province. Coined ‘Minnetoba’, a combination of Minnesota and neighbouring Canadian province Manitoba, protesters have called for the incorporation of Minnesota into Canada [4].

Understanding the history

To understand the recent skirmish better, one has to delve into the history of US-Canada relations. Although a picture of close historical alliance of Canada and the US has been invoked, which Trump has now jeopardised, the US and Canada have not been without conflict in the past. This is reflected in their common history. In the early 19th century a couple of disputes between the then British colony of Canada and their newly independent neighbour enspewed [5]. Even Founding Father Benjamin Franklin voiced a notable desire to annex the northern neighbour. With the dominion of Canada, viewed as the onset of gradual Canadian independence, partly inspired by a desire to fend off an imbalance of power with the US [6].

Most notorious is the war of 1812, a military conflict between British Canadian possessions and the United States, led to multiple US invasions of Canadian territory followed by a British march on Washington. Most notably, the British even managed to set fire to the White House [7]. This conflict alone shows that the historic foundations of Canada US relations are not solely cooperative.

Following less notable squabbles in the 19th century, now independent Canada and the US each devised their own plans to invade each other in the early 20th century. After World War One Canadian military personnel devised a plan for US invasion. Not long after the US devised their own invasion plan dubbed ‘War Plan Red’ which included notable involvements of strategic and economic resources. A plethora of patrols and espionage on the Northern border as well as investments of $57 million by Congress were devoted to this endeavour. Although both plans never materialised, this further illustrates how weary both states have been of each other throughout their shared history [8].

Still, the creation of NATO and the FTA, the Canada United States Free Trade Agreement, have largely seen both nations be more cooperative and open towards each other continuing from the better half of the 20th century onward [9]. The history of US Canada relations shows clearly that they have neither been all rosy nor completely hostile. On one hand, ups and downs seem very typical for relations between Canada and their southern neighbour. On the other hand, there has been a recent period of stability with NATO and the FTA, later NAFTA. Trump’s attacks on the relations are arguably the largest burden since Nixon’s protectionist trade policies towards Canada in the 1970s.

What the Future Holds in Store

Illustrated by Canada’s wargames and Carney’s intense speech, this impact on US Canada relations will likely endure Trump’s presidency. Backing down for either Carney or Trump could lead to immense domestic political losses. As Trump followed up Carney‘s appearance in Davos with threats of tariffs, the Canadian head of state doubled down on his remarks [10]. One has to keep in mind that it is this foreign policy platform that was a major reason why he was elected in the first place. Therefore, it is likely that Canada will reorient itself even further towards other allies like the EU and seek companionship in other ‘middle powers’ as Carney put it. The American-Canadian history is nestled with disputes, but most were small or remained at mere intelligence planning. Given joint membership in NATO and high trade volume, which even though startled by Canadian consumer boycotts of US products still plays a role [11], violent conflict seems unlikely. The example of Minnesota however sheds light on the possibility of a cultural shift in the American North.

Back to Minnetoba

Although nothing can be for granted anymore, if Carney’s speech is to be believed, it seems unlikely that territorial borders will soon be changed between the US and Canada, at least not in favour toward Canada. Firstly, the US Canada border has provided historical continuity even during tensions, having been formulated in 1908. Secondly, Canadian wargames have allegedly provided highly unfavourable results from Canada’s perspective and despite Trump’s attacks on this institution both states are also part of NATO. Therefore, it is highly unlikely that Canada would take Minnesota by force. This is important because constitutionally there is no legal way of secession by a state from the union. Via legal or military contexts, the incorporation of Minnesota into Canada is currently not feasible.

There is another pathway however, which seems more likely, that being cultural incorporation. Minnesota is both geographically and somewhat culturally close to Canada, with a shared love for ice hockey and snowy weather. The call for incorporation into Canada has also somewhat existed for longer than recent memory. If domestic troubles persist in the United States and the relations with Canada further cool down, states bordering Canada could see a cultural and political shift toward Canada that would cut deeper than simple blunt annexation.

Conclusion

The history of the US and Canada has not been without tensions and has been far from an unshaken friendship. The current episode however, seems like an especially large deviation because it follows a period of relative stability and military as well as trade integration. Since their foreign policy stances seem integral for both Trump and Carney it is unlikely that the relationship will get better soon. The current protest movement in Minnesota is unlikely to affect material reality of historical borders put could have deep impacts for the cultural orientation of many of the United States‘ northernmost citizens.

Works Cited

[1] Yousif, N. (2026). ‘From surge in patriotism to fewer US trips – Trump‘s impact on Canada’, bbc, 18 January. Available at: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/crmlvym2e3eo (Accessed: 26 February 2026).

[2] Carney, M. 2026. Special Adress by Mark Carney: Prime Minister of Canada. Available at: https://www.weforum.org/stories/2026/01/davos-2026-special-address-by-mark-carney-prime-minister-of-canada/ (Accessed: 26 February 2026).

[3] Thurston, J. (2026). ‘Canada wargames a US invasion – and it doesn‘t end well’, The Times, 21 January. Available at: https://www.thetimes.com/us/news-today/article/canada-us-invasion-8zzqs5tr5?gaa_at=eafs&gaa_n=AWEtsqfmlQH6Rg3f3xOPql2a2ZRxbYeFk0e_hb7dvAApfvSgi9lkDwEF6Vkv2TWPzD0%3D&gaa_ts=699f5914&gaa_sig=vRROudW-xFS2EmRvsGAg83uN4AcwE45bADLpWcHQSSt97COjP77cPQcYAmOwSfvpPIBzcD7ypZJ6aWHjZiW5wQ%3D%3D (Accessed: 26 February 2026).

[4] Maimann, K. (2026). ‘'Minnetoba’? Some Minnesotans want to join Canada as tensions flare up with Trump administration’, CBC, 30 January. Available at: https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/minnesota-join-canada-jesse-ventura-9.7067000 (Accessed: 26 February 2026).

[5] Fagan, D. (2026). ‘The Big Split: How Canada and the United States Pulled Together, Then Apart’, Policy: Canadian Politics and Public Policy, 15 February. Available at: https://www.policymagazine.ca/the-big-split-how-canada-and-the-united-states-pulled-together-then-apart/ (Accessed: 26 February 2026).

[6] Herman, L. (2025). ‘Donald Trump, Benjamin Franklin, and the History of Annexation Threats’, Policy: Canadian Politics and Public Policy, 28 August. Available at: https://www.policymagazine.ca/donald-trump-benjamin-franklin-and-the-history-of-annexation-threats/ (Accessed: 26 February 2026).

[7] National Army Museum. The War of 1812. Available at: https://www.nam.ac.uk/explore/war-1812 (Accessed: 27 February 2026).

[8] Lippert, K. (2018). ‘That Time the U.S. Almost Went to War with Canada: And other tales from the Northern border.’, POLITICO Magazine, 21 June. Available at: https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2018/06/21/that-time-the-us-almost-went-to-war-with-canada-218881/ (Accessed: 26 February 2026).

[9] Council om Foreign Relations (2026). U.S.-Canada Relations. Available at: https://www.cfr.org/timelines/us-canada-relations (Accessed: 27 February 2026).

[10] Breuninger, K. (2026). ‘Canada‘s Carney to Trump: ‘I meant what I said in Davos’’, CNBC, 27 January. Available at: https://www.cnbc.com/2026/01/27/carney-trump-bessent-davos.html (Accessed: 26 February 2026).

[11] Tombe, T. (2025). ‘How much did Canada‘s trade retaliation and boycotts actually hurt the US? Trevor Tombe in The Hub’, Macdonald-Laurier Institue, 15 June. Available at: https://macdonaldlaurier.ca/how-much-did-canadas-trade-retaliation-and-boycotts-actually-hurt-the-u-s-trevor-tombe-in-the-hub/#:~:text=But%20for%20now%2C%20the%20conclusion,impact%20south%20of%20the%20border (Accessed: 27 February 2026).